Tropical Storm Danny – Friday, August 28, 2009 8:29 AM EDT

28Aug09

From: Mark Malsick [mailto:MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov] On Behalf Of WEATHERALERT
Sent: Friday, August 28, 2009 8:29 AM
To: WEATHERALERT
Subject: Tropical Storm Danny
 
Good Morning,

“Chin, I want you to go to the Big Island and leave no stone un-turned”
“Aw, Steve, that’s a lotta rocks.”

Even corny Hawaii Five-O mid-watch schtick can’t hide the fact that Danny (Dano?) is a bigger mess this morning than yesterday. Shear has pummeled Danny into a totally disorganized blob. The center of circulation seen yesterday is gone. Spiral banding is all mushy. Danny remains a mess.
 
TS Danny (barely) is 400 miles east-southeast of sunny Parris Island (hoo-rah). Danny’s track has been a real challenge, a veritable Heisenberg uncertainty if I may be so bold. After a 2 kt westward creep yesterday afternoon, Danny is now on a north-northwest track at 8-9 kts. Danny’s official current intensity holds at 35 kts, which may be a tad generous. Danny’s slow creep has probably induced cold water upwelling (Ekman pumping y’all!) that, along with the 20-30 kt shear over Danny’s northern, half will throttle intensification today. The models continue tracking Danny northwards with excellent to outstanding agreement. The intensity forecast holds Danny at 35-40 kts until Danny becomes extratropical over this weekend as it passes over the North Wall of the Gulf Stream. There is no longer any environmental support for Danny to become a hurricane. Danny’s closest point approach should be tonight, 275 miles east of Myrtle Beach which may, at best, see some increased swell activity but none of Danny’s winds. A tropical storm watch has been set for the Virginia Capes.
 
A tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde is showing signs of slow development but at 3058 miles to the southeast, the Prudent Mariner can most probably wait until Monday to see what develops. Living on the edge.

Photos Courtesy of the US Navy (a.k.a. my previous life..):
 
Mark Malsick
Severe Weather Liaison
South Carolina Department of Natural Resources State Climate Office
1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202
803-734-0039
MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from Engine No. 9

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